Maida Zahid
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Meteorological Institute (MIN Faculty)
Anschrift
Kontakt
Titel des Forschungsprojektes:
Impact of extreme sea surface temperatures of Arabian Sea on the coastal communities of southern Pakistan
Mentor:
Prof. Dr. Valerio Lucarini
Hintergrund des Projekts:
Coastal zones are exposed to a wide range of hazards including cyclones, flooding, heat waves, storm surge and sea level rise. Recent changes in climate not only enhances the existing sources of risk, but introduces the new ones as well. Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change because of its warm climate. The Arabian Sea touches the southern parts of Pakistan making it more prone to tropical cyclones and storm surges that have caused lot of damage recently by aggravating the problem of saline intrusion inland with stress on the coastal aquifers. Some of the studies showed that the average SSTs of the Arabian Sea become warmer than the Bay of Bengal increasing the risk of tropical cyclones. Therefore, considering the link between SSTs and tropical cyclones frequency, this project has been designed to analyze the return levels of extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of Arabian Sea using extreme value theory (EVT). The probability of the tropical cyclones frequency in Arabian Sea is also calculated using SST as a predictor. The project will also describe the impacts of extreme SSTs on the coastal communities of Pakistan.
Zielsetzung des Projekts:
The man objectives of the project are as follows;
- To analyze the extreme return levels of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
of Arabian Sea in the next 5-100 years. - To investigate the probability of tropical cyclones frequency in Arabian Sea using SST
as a predictor. - To study the possible impacts like cyclones to the coastal communities of
southern Pakistan. - To suggest the adaptations to the planners and policy makers, to make
these communities more sustainable against the climate extremes.
Vorgehen:
Extreme value theory is used for describing the distribution of rare events, especially in financial, insurance,meteorology, hydrology or environmental applications, where the risk of extreme events is of interest. Where inference about extremes can be challenging due to the scarcity of data, extreme value models are used to study the behavior of the tail of the distribution.
The block maxima method of extreme value theory is used to study the return levels of extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Arabian Sea.
The Poisson regression is applied to predict the frequency of tropical cyclone frequency in the Arabian Sea using sea surface temperatures as a predictor.
R statistical software (package extRemes, ismev) is used for the analysis.